How does real-time share pricing and implied probability work?
In a CLOB, share prices are set by the highest bid and lowest ask from real users. The mid-price reflects the crowd's implied probability. In an AMM, an algorithm (typically LMSR, Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) calculates prices based on the current share distribution, adjusting dynamically with every trade. Both methods ensure that a share priced at $0.72 implies a 72% probability of the outcome occurring. The AMM engine also handles multi-outcome pricing, ensuring that all outcome probabilities always sum to 100%, a critical feature for market integrity.